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Monday, June 22, 2009

Hyperinflation 2

Chargeless money
As the tendency of money to increase in value diminishes towards zero its velocity around the economy increases because people and businesses become ambivalent about keeping it to store value. Like atoms with no charge these dollars are not attractive, so they don’t settle.

At this stage economic activity - which is measured by the rate at which these dollars are flying around - looks magnificent in all the statistics, but little of it is productive. What is actually happening is that people are ditching their dollars to find a better store of value, so what looks like 'growth' of the dollar economy is - more accurately - an exit.

You can see this happening wherever economic figures reporting in excess of your direct experience, and wherever alternative stores of value start to rise in price.

Repulsive money
The expected central bank reaction to this kind of thing would be to raise interest rates, to bind the issued supply back into savers' pockets.

But this is where the catch is. The raising of rates can only be done when there is low risk of it causing debt servicing problems for large numbers of borrowers, because otherwise different risks arise. After a long borrowing binge consumer debt is high, corporate debt is high and public debt is high, and the increase of rates now risks causing previous borrowers to find their debt burdens unaffordable. This is a big problem, because it has been the demand of all these borrowing consumers which has been keeping the dollar saving habit profitable for decades.

So after polarization into savers and borrowers the monetary system is caught between two very unattractive options. The likely result is a runaway effect in which increasingly repulsive cash is dumped, while the central bank looks on, powerless to raise rates because it would induce previous borrowers to default.

It is made more severe when savers over the whole world have been stockpiling this currency as their reserve too. Hyperinflation needs no printing press if 35 years of surplus money supply has been frozen into savers' bond portfolios.

In such circumstances alternate assets - like the precious metals, cash commodities, well run foreign currencies, or the very few sound equities - rise in price to uncomfortable levels. These rises cause most savers to hold on to dollars in hope, fearful that having lost half their purchasing power already they'll lose another half by panicking out of weak currency into highly priced solid assets.

Towards the end of last year the US sovereign debt increased to $8 trillion - about $80,000 for every US family. The Iranians announced the termination of trading their oil for US Dollars. Russia decided to double its gold reserve. Gold coins minted in China disappeared off the shelves in hours. Gold's price continued to rise aggressively. In dollar terms gold has now much more than doubled from its 2000 lows of around $270. It is already an uncomfortable purchase - but that may be why it is such an important one.

Sunday, June 21, 2009


Hyperinflation is about unattractive money

No printing press required
Typically price rises in a hyperinflation massively outstrip the rate at which money has been recently issued, so it's not just about the rate of printing. There must be more to it.

Attractive money
The dollar became the world's reserve currency by having the longest reliable history of increasing purchasing power. That quality is intricately tied up with US economic expansion, because people who chose to save a dollar instead of spend it had a good chance of their money finding its way to a productive project, and later returning them more purchasing power than they originally saved.

But being a favoured international reserve currency is a double-edged sword. While the world chooses to accumulate your money everything is doubly easy. You put dollars into circulation and foreigners willingly accumulate them, allowing your citizens to enjoy the exports of the world at rock-bottom prices. What a life!

Unfortunately when you lose that special status everything changes. The flip side of being the world's reserve is that everyone is soon sitting on a great pile of your money, and you become exposed to the possibility that they dump it back into circulation.

The Dollar charge
High school science provides a useful analogy. A dollar is a bit like a positively charged atom existing in a world of negatively charged people. Like static electricity the dollars are attractive to the people.

At different times, depending upon the actions of central bankers, the attractiveness of dollars varies. If dollars store and gain monetary value over time, then like a strong positive charge they stick like glue in the pockets of their negatively charged owners.

This sticky money does not get spent as quickly as central bankers would like. Instead it is cautiously hoarded and economic activity stalls, eventually causing a cycle of falling prices - deflation - because it profits people to put off their spending. But money created by central banks can be injected into the economy to create a nervousness in savers; a hint that it should be spent or risk losing value. It makes the existing supply stick less in peoples’ pockets and keeps it circulating in economic activity.

Governments have discovered this economic trick. It is quite easy to do and appears to be so safe for such a long time that they have grown to rely on it as a trusted, indeed almost the only mechanism necessary for economic management. But it leads to aggressive inflation, and the reason for introducing the electric charge analogy is it can show us how.

Saturday, June 20, 2009

Where to buy Gold

Take care when buying from a bank

Unallocated gold
As you set out to buy gold the first thing you need to know is that 95% of the world's gold traders will automatically sell you the wrong type.

Unallocated gold is the most widely traded form of gold in the world. It hides a way of advantaging the provider - usually a bank - by subjecting buyers to a risk they will frequently remain unaware of until it is too late. The widely quoted 'spot price' refers to this unallocated gold, and this is how it works:-

1.When a bank sells you unallocated gold on the spot market you become a creditor - i.e. the bank owes you gold which you do not own. The bank is taking advantage of the fact that you are not quite sure what to do with any gold you buy, and it feels logical - to most gold buyers - to put the gold safely in the bank. When you do this you become, in law, a depositor of gold. Most people now relax in the belief that they own gold completely securely, and they do not pay the little extra - above the spot - to have their trade formally 'allocated'.

2.A bank is required by its regulator to hold a proportion of its liabilities as certain types of assets capable of being turned into cash quickly during times of crisis. It is a liquid reserve and it's there to protect the bank from a common type of problem - a liquidity crisis - which occurs when a bank has short term deposits, long term loans, and insufficient cash to meet the immediate demand for withdrawals. Physical gold bars are accepted as a very good form of liquidity reserve because they can be turned quickly into cash.

3.If a bank has physical possession of some gold which it owes you as its creditor the bank itself is the current owner of the gold. While this gold remains unallocated to you the regulator considers it part of a bank's liquid reserve. This makes unallocated gold an attractive way for the bank to maintain its regulated liquidity, because you have paid for your gold, and the bank is free to use your money, while it is also able to add your unallocated gold holding to its own reserve.

4.So your unallocated gold would be ditched if the bank were in need of cash. It has no choice in the matter because liquid reserves are there to be sold at short notice to protect the bank's general creditors - all of whom, including you, must receive a proportionate share of whatever is raised from the sale of assets should the crisis deepen and the bank become insolvent.

5.If that did happen you would be in a bad position. The bank's small gold reserve would be diluted by non-performing bond portfolios and other assets which don't sell well in a crisis. The last line of defence for bank depositors is deposit protection, which is a state underwritten mainstay of banking confidence in the West. But it does not apply on bullion debts like yours. Deposit protection is there as a confidence-builder for the national currency only, which means unallocated gold actually offers less protection from bank failure than a cash deposit. So having been the provider of the bank's liquidity reserve you will then be in the minority of those offered no protection by the state's guarantee.

6.So it is important not to be impressed by unallocated gold, or by it being physically stored in a bank's vault, or by it being checked daily by bank regulators. Regulators are checking it to make sure the bank maintains a liquid reserve, and they are not interested in your entitlement as a bullion creditor.

Allocated gold is different because you become the outright owner of gold and you are no longer a creditor. Your allocated gold is your property and it cannot be used as the bank's reserve, so with allocated gold you get proper protection from systemic failure.

Unfortunately with allocated gold your money does the bank no good. And since modern banks reckon to earn 20% each year on capital employed, their loss of use of your allocated gold is disappointing for them. This is why banks usually charge nothing for unallocated storage and at least 1.5% per annum for allocated storage, with the result that professionals in the bullion market reckon that less than 1% of gold traded within financial markets is allocated.

This is how the huge majority of the world's owners of bank held gold are - probably unwittingly - storing their personal reserve in a way which fails to meet the most common objective of gold buyers.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Ar Rahnu Bank Rakyat


Sambungan drp tajuk lepas, antara perkara yang boleh dibuat oleh Ar Rahnu Bank Rakyat selain menebus sebahagian drp barang gadaian ialah mendapatkan wang gadaian lebih ekoran harga emas yang melonjak naik... bahasa lain yg biasa digunakan oleh Etika Emas dahulu ialah "redemption".

Bagaimana ia boleh dilakukan ialah jika harga emas melonjak naik dengan tinggi berbanding harga gadaian sebelum ini... Maka, anda boleh datang ke bank Rakyat dan nyatakan yg anda ingin membuat gadaian semula.... apa yang perlu ialah anda membawa wang upah simpan utk tempoh tersebut. Pihak B/rakyat akan membuat proses penggadaian seperti biasa... dan lebihan wang drp kenaikan harga emas itu anda boleh nikmati dan gadaian anda akan dikira gadaian baru dengan upah simpan dan marhun yang baru.

Walau bagaimanapun, sebelum anda pergi ke Bank, buat lah dahulu kiraan sendiri secara kasar... dan lihat berapa kenaikan yg anda dapat? dan lihat juga keperluan anda utk berbuat demikian...

Namun, tidaak salah utk anda buat, jika penambahannya agak tinggi... Saya rasa anda boleh berbincang dgn pegawai di sana. Saya pasti mereka akan membantu... kerana pegawai bank di Ar-Rahnu B/r (Kedai Ar-rahnu) Kota Bharu adalah antara yg terbaik dan akan membuat anda berasa selesa dengan layanan mereka.

Apa-apa pun, kajian dan pertimbangan anda haruslah melebihi drp segalanya... Dalami ilmu emas ni dengan otai2 di dalam J.Emas tu...

Ar-Rahnu Bank Rakyat


Semalam saya berkesempatan utk pergi ke Ar-Rahnu Bank Rakyat. Apa yang saya hendak kongsi bersama ialah beberapa perkara tentang prosedur Ar Rahnu yg boleh dijadikan panduan. Bagi yg sudah mengetahui dan merasakan terdapat kesilapan harap2 perbetulkan utk kebaikan semua.

Bagi kalangan kawan2 kita yg ada berurusan dgn Ar-Rahnu, terdapat beberapa perkara yg anda boleh ambil perhatian:

1. Untuk mengurangkan kos membayar upah simpan

a. Sebaik-baiknya utk menebus gadaian ialah 16 hari sebelum tarikh tamat gadaian. Ini kerana jika sebelum hari ke 15, upah simpan dikira separuh.
Sebagai contoh: Anda membuat gadaian pada 05hb Mei 09, tamat tempoh gadaian ialah 05 Nov 09. Jika anda menebus pada atau sebelum 20 hb Oct 09, maka upah simpan pada bulan ke enam adalah separuh atau anda hanya perlu membayar upah simpan utk 5 1/2 bulan sahaja.

2. Untuk menebus sebahagian drp barang gadaian:

a. Jika anda mempunyai lebih drp satu jumlah barangan gadaian, anda boleh menebus sebahagian drp barang tersebut jika anda tidak mempunyai wang utk menebus kesemua barangan.
Sebagai contoh:
Anda telah menggadai 1 keping kijang emas dan 1 goldbar 20gm. katakan jumlah gasdaian adalah rm 3000. upah simpan utk 6 bulan ialah rm240 (sbg contoh sahaja)Maka utk penebusan anda perlukan rm 3240. Tetapi, katakan anda hanya mempunyai wang sebanyak rm 1600. Pihak B/R akan membuat kiraan penebusan semula dan membuat gadaian semula ke atas sebahagian lagi barang yg tidak di tebus. Jadi, anda hanya perlu membayar kos upah simpan dan nilaian tebusan barang yg hendak ditebus. Sekiranya, hari tersebut harga emas adalah tinggi berbanding pada hari tebusan dibuat, anda berkemungkinana akan mendapat wang tambahan drp penggadaian barang yg tidak ditebus tersebut.


Sunday, June 14, 2009

Gold knowledge

Quality Gold's purity is measured in karats. 24 karat is pure gold, but its purity means it is more expensive and less durable than gold that is alloyed with other metals. Different alloys are used in jewelry for greater strength, durability and color range.

The karatage of the jewelry will tell you what percentage of gold it contains: 24 karat is 100 percent, 18 karat is 75 percent, and 14 karat is 58 percent gold. When comparing gold jewelry, the higher the number of karats, the greater the value.

Cerita Emas

Gold and money

History of gold

From the first discoveries of gold in ancient times, its beauty and the ease with which it could be worked have inspired craftsmen to use it to create ornaments, not just for adornment, but as potent symbols of wealth and power. The first pure gold coins were struck by King Croesus of Lydia (present-day Turkey) during his reign between 560 and 547 BC and gold coins have continued as legal tender since that time.

Mine production

It is known that the Egyptians mined gold before 2000 BC and the first coin containing gold was struck in the eighth century BC.

The best estimates available suggest that the total volume of gold mined over history is approximately 158,000 tonnes, of which around 65% has been mined since 1950. Production has been on a downward trend since 2001, due principally to the reduction in exploration budgets that accompanied the low gold price of the late 1990s and the consequent fall in the number of major new gold discoveries. Independent analysts believe mine output will remain relatively flat for the next few years. For a history of gold mining >>

Gold as a reserve asset

Central banks have been major holders of gold for more than 100 years and are expected to retain large stocks in future. They currently account for about 20% of above-ground stocks. The process of rebalancing reserve portfolios to adjust to changing conditions since the demise of the gold standard has led to a reduction in the amount of gold held by some central banks in the past ten years. This process may continue for some years to come. But the central banks have affirmed that gold will remain an important reserve asset for the foreseeable future and, importantly, since 1999 have accepted that sales be governed by international agreement.


Why gold?

Clearly it is not always right to be buying gold. Often - in fact, usually - it is better to go in search of business growth.

Right now we can look back over 25 years where the conditions have generally been very good for growing businesses. Unsurprisingly in those 25 years gold has underperformed business investments - by as much as 20 times.

But nobody makes money today from yesterday's price moves, and now there are many indicators which suggest things could soon turn very bad for investors seeking growth.

The list of dangers is getting longer. Here are a few:-

Budget deficits
Trade deficits
Asset bubbles
Financial systemics (open derivatives held on margin accounts etc)
The bond market overhang
Sovereign and corporate default risk
Accounting holes (e.g. corporate pension liabilities)
Foreign central bank currency mountains
Social program bankruptcies (medicare / medicaid / state pensions)
100% consumption, 0% saving

Whether directly or indirectly most of these problems ultimately resolve to a single form. The savings of the developed world have been bound up in promises to repay, and it looks less and less likely that repayment is possible. The level of debt is the central problem threatening the wealth of today's investor, and keeping all that debt under control is becoming impossible.

The difficulty is that as economies move from a low debt to a high debt environment the self correcting nature of the economy changes. Overindebtedness seeks to correct itself either with rapid inflation which devalues savings indiscriminately, or with a deflationary squeeze, which kills specific businesses, and their creditors, through default. The current wild swings in interest rates demonstrate our monetary authorities trying with increasing desperation to prevent first one and then the other.

Economies rarely return to stability in an orderly way, and late moving investors usually get caught. Once even one or two percent of savers go in search of protection - to things like gold - prices change to the limit of what is acceptable to the rest, and they hold out stubbornly.

There is never enough room in the lifeboats of financial markets.

A three way bet
The world's oldest investors can just about remember the Great Depression. In America, from 1929's top to the bottom in 1932, the price of business assets fell by 90%. The purchasing power of gold, in terms of business assets, rose about seventeen-fold. The key during the deflation was to avoid default - i.e. your savings being lost to a failing financial institution unable to meet its obligations.

In the 1970s gold's price rose from $42 to $850. The price of business assets stayed approximately the same in money, with stock markets opening and closing the decade at broadly similar levels. Gold's business purchasing power rose about fifteen times. The 70s were a decade of worldwide inflation and stagflation, and this time the key was to avoid your money losing its purchasing power.

More inflations
The following illustration shows just a sample of hyperinflations from the last hundred years.

In each case once the currency tipped over the edge the journey to worthlessness was rapid and painful. Gold stored offshore protected its owners from the consequences of these inflations. But in every case the local deposits and bond portfolios of the sensible saver were destroyed.

What caused these inflations?
Underlying these hyperinflations there has been more than one root cause, and both lost wars and financial corruption have contributed. But the single most common factor was a failure to contain debt. When countries lose control of their public finances they can generally look forward to watching the value of their currency evaporate.

BullionVault's view is that the demands of modern democracy have caused the public finances of the USA to fall into the early stage of the same sort of death spiral while - tragically - its government and many of its people are distracted. At the same time in terms of fiscal irresponsibility Japan and the UK are not far behind, and Europe as a whole is far from healthy.

Our view is that the correction from this very high debt situation will directly cost a large percentage of savings. It will also deprive the world of the previously insatiable American consumer (we British are almost as bad, but there's not so many of us), and for a long time overcapacity in the world and a shortage of customers willing and able to pay will make productive business a painful and unrewarding pursuit.

Is this delusional? It is a bit embarrassing to be so publicly pessimistic, but we know for certain that we share these thoughts with more and more shrewd people, on whose behalf BullionVault now stores more than 1.8 tonnes of gold - mostly in Switzerland.

Debt, debt, and more debt
Argentina collapsed in 2001 when its sovereign debt hit $12,000 per family. The world's lenders had realised it would never be able to raise the taxes to pay back this debt, so they refused to fund it with ever more of their money.

This year the United States official public debt hit $83,000 per household. This public debt was only $20,000 in 1985, but even that was widely considered an irresponsible level and described mockingly as "Reaganomics". It has since then quietly quadrupled, which is the hidden cost of promising "no new taxes" while continuing to spend; both of which appear to be necessary to win modern elections in the USA. Currently each household's debt is growing by $5,000 a year.

These figures are straight off the official public debt site at :
The conventional view is to believe the US household capable of paying back this money through economic expansion, because apparently this will generate more tax. But this view makes little sense. Encouraging economic expansion is all very well when people are spending money they have previously saved, but in the USA saving has declined steadily from an already low figure in 2002, and turned negative in 2005. New spending will therefore need more credit, and if it is to be state sponsored the US Treasury will be adding to the $450 per month of increasing indebtedness every US family currently contributes to the US Government's public debt. Only bankrupts and gamblers think borrowing more is the solution to high indebtedness.

Since the options are so painful it is quite likely nothing significant will be done, and the public debt will continue growing in the meantime at about $5,000 per year per family. It will probably not be paid off until normal everyday banknotes have got one or two more zeros on them.

Would anyone in the US Federal Reserve sanction such inflationary money printing? It is unlikely, but it can be taken out of their hands. The market itself could take charge; it usually does.

One day we will hit the tipping point. Some small event will probably end up being identified as the direct cause and will knock the markets surprisingly hard. Whether it's a hedge fund implosion, a bank failure, a political crisis, or perhaps even a natural disaster, it will trigger the re-evaluation which will correct 20 years of overconfidence in the ability of borrowers to repay. It will be impossible to identify it as the beginning of the long slide back to reality until 10 years later, by which time it will be too late to be useful.

The bond glut

The US dollar has for a long time been the reserve currency of choice. The result is that for each US household there is now a total of about 440,000 in dollar denominated bonds spread out across the world (this includes commercial bonds denominated in US dollars). The size of this debt mountain has grown about 40 times in 25 years.

A big chunk of this debt falls due for re-financing every year, which places many billions of dollars in the hands of global investors, who are not especially loyal to the US dollar and must decide whether to re-invest in dollar bonds, or buy something else.

This $44trn aggregation is easily the largest stockpile of debt ever, and keeping it off the market requires near zero inflation. Once this frozen stockpile starts to melt it will be self-sustaining, and a trickle could turn quickly into a flood.

This is the conundrum at the heart of the world's monetary system. People will steadily realise that without inflation the US cannot pay its public debts and must default. Yet with inflation the overhang of bond money will flood the world with worthless dollars. Which is the way out? Default and deflation, or glut and inflation?

Berkongsi Cerita "Paper Money History "

China - Monday 26th June 2006
Imperial collapse from monetary crisis.

Chinese money
From 1260, when Genghis Khan's grandson Kublai was Chinese emperor (and after a few earlier false starts) paper money finally took root.

This 1 Kuan note is of one of the oldest banknotes
in the world. It was made in China in about 1380.
To begin with there was an extensive system known as the First Mongol Issue which was over-issued as soon as it was successful and then depreciated rapidly. It was replaced on a 5:1 ratio by the much longer lasting Second Mongol Issue.

Marco Polo explains
This ran from 1264 to 1290 and was famously described by the Italian adventurer Marco Polo - the first European to visit China and return to write about it :-

"The emperor's mint then is in this same city of Cambaluc, and the way it is wrought is such that you might say he has the secret of alchemy in perfection, and you would be right. For he makes his money after this fashion. He makes them take of the bark of a certain tree, in fact of the mulberry tree, the leaves of which are the food of the silkworms, these trees being so numerous that the whole districts are full of them. What they take is a certain fine white bast or skin which lies between the wood of the tree and the thick outer bark, and this they make into something resembling sheets of paper, but black. When these sheets have been prepared they are cut up into pieces of different sizes.

All these pieces of paper are issued with as much solemnity and authority as if they were of pure gold or silver; and on every piece a variety of officials, whose duty it is, have to write their names, and to put their seals. And when all is prepared duly, the chief officer deputed by the Khan smears the seal entrusted to him with vermilion, and impresses it on the paper, so that the form of the seal remains imprinted upon it in red; the money is then authentic. Anyone forging it would be punished with death. And the Khan causes every year to be made such a vast quantity of this money, which costs him nothing, that it must equal in amount all the treasure of the world.

Furthermore all merchants arriving from India or other countries, and bringing with them gold or silver or gems and pearls, are prohibited from selling to any one but the emperor. He has twelve experts chosen for this business, men of shrewdness and experience in such affairs; these appraise the articles, and the emperor then pays a liberal price for them in those pieces of paper. The merchants accept his price readily, for in the first place they would not get so good an one from anybody else, and secondly they are paid without any delay. And with this paper money they can buy what they like anywhere over the empire" The Travels

Inflation took hold in 1287. But even then life under this system remained extremely good. It was described by Alexander Del Mar, America's foremost monetary historian during the 19th century:-

"This was the most brilliant period in the history of China. Kublai Khan, after subduing and uniting the whole country and adding Burmah, Cochin-China, and Tonquin to the empire, entered upon a series of internal improvements and civil reforms, which raised the country he had conquered to the highest rank of civilization, power and progress. Tranquillity succeeded the commotions of the previous period; life and property were amply protected; justice was equally dispensed; and the effect of a gradual increase in the currency, which was jealously guarded from counterfeiting, was to stimulate industry and prevent the monopolization of capital. It was during this era that the Imperial canal, 1660 miles long, together with many other notable structures were built." History of Monetary Systems - 1886

The Second Mongol issue continued falling in value until in 1310 a third issue replaced the second, duplicating the 5 : 1 ratio with which the second had replaced the first. Then things changed markedly for the worse.

"Population and trade had greatly increased, but the emissions of paper notes were suffered to largely outrun both, and the inevitable consequence was depreciation. All the beneficial effects of a currency which is allowed to expand with a growth of population and trade were now turned into those evil effects that flow from a currency emitted in excess of such growth. These effects were not slow to develop themselves. Excessive and too rapid augmentation of the currency, resulted in the entire subversion of the old order of society. The best families in the empire were ruined, a new set of men came into the control of public affairs, and the country became the scene of internecine warfare and confusion." Del Mar

In the final phase of the Mongol dynasty in about 1350 huge efforts were made to correct the management of the currency but the situation was beyond repair, monetary paper having been issued in one form or another by all manner of private, provincial and government agencies in what amounted to an explosion of credit. The new Ming dynasty issued yet more paper currency with legislation stating "This paper money shall have currency, and be used in all respects as if it were copper money". There was no public confidence in this declaration and at the outset the paper traded at 17 : 13 against copper coinage. Before long the ratio fell to 300 : 1.

A modern comparison
No historical episode is directly comparable with modern circumstances, but ancient China had some similarities. Its borders were secure, it was enormously confident in its institutions of state, it had enjoyed a prolonged period of economic success, and built its civic and commercial infrastructure on what amounted to capital issued for nothing. State and corporate paper had been injected in quantities which had never previously been imagined.

It left labour and enterprise happy and confident, which can correctly be looked on as the beneficial result of good money management. Indeed the economic policies of the period were at the time widely thought to be exceptionally enlightened and probably permanent - a view which persisted for several decades during a period of steady currency inflation.

Yet this prosperous and confident period preceded rapid financial and political decline. When the confidence in the currency gave way there was wholesale destruction of the value of savings in almost all forms at once, and the dynamism required to sustain empire rapidly disappeared. As its once respected institutions imploded the state itself was overthrown from the inside within a few years. That was the end of the Mongols.

Gold at the junction of monetary systems
Ancient China helps to illustrate one of the monetary roles of gold.

Well managed artificial money can support a good economy, but it will eventually collapse under the excesses of its period of greatest success. Eventually a few debtors fail. It takes very few failures before creditors start to see risk in every promise to repay. Their faith in their institutions evaporates, and they become acutely aware of the dangers of anything intangible or corruptible.

This is why gold re-materialises as a preferred store of value in times of severe economic distress. Artificially rare money is corrupted by over-issue, which is a powerful temptation when productive economic expansion has become difficult to achieve.

Gold drifts back into the background during times of sound economic management. A truth - unpalatable to the true gold bug - is that gold underperforms artificial money in an environment capable of supporting healthy business growth. Well managed artificial money allows the capital supply to expand and support the need for it by businesses which have the prospect of succeeding. Gold - on the other hand - rations capital. It cannot expand its supply to satisfy all the phantom business opportunities apparently offered by an advanced but creaking economy.

When economic environments are mature, and when profitable business opportunities are few, gold becomes a good way of storing value. It allows its owners to avoid being caught up in a currency whose supply is repeatedly expanded in search of business growth which is not going to happen.

Gold Price Drops 2.3% as T-Bonds Bounce with Dollar, Oil & Stocks Ease Back - Saturday 13th June 2009

The Gold Price fell together with silver throughout world trade on Friday, dropping as low as $936.70 an ounce early in New York as silver sank as far as $14.78.

Both gold and silver then rebounded slightly into the close, but the Gold Price still ended the week with a loss of 2.3% while silver closed 3.4% lower.

The Gold Price in Euros fell to a 5-week low just above €669 an ounce.

Gold Mining and silver equities fell over 3% at the open before they roughly halved their losses by midmorning, but they then fell back off into the close and ended with about 3% losses on the day, down almost 5% for the week.

Platinum lost $13 to $1250, and copper fell over 7 cents to about $2.37, while oil fell almost 1% as the US Dollar index rebounded from Thursday's pounding on trader positioning ahead of this weekend's G8 meeting.

Treasury bonds rose on continued relief over the government's mostly successful auctions of $65 billion worth of debt this past week. The 10-year yield ended the week lower after jumping to 8-month highs near 4.0% mid-week, closing at 3.78%.

The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P traded mixed and ended the week only slightly higher as US Import Price data rose less quickly than expected in May, while Export Prices added 0.6% month-on-month.

The Michigan Sentiment Index rose for the fourth month running to give its best showing since October.

Next week's economic highlights include the NY Empire Manufacturing Index and Net Long-Term TIC Flows on Monday, Building Permits, Housing Starts, PPI, Capacity Utilization, and Industrial Production on Tuesday, CPI on Wednesday, and Initial Jobless Claims, Leading Economic Indicators, and the Philadelphia Fed survey on Thursday.

Gold Drops Most in Two Months as Dollar Gain Curbs Hedge Demand

By Nicholas Larkin and Halia Pavliva

June 12 (Bloomberg) -- Gold slid the most in two months as the rallying dollar reduced demand for the metal as an alternative investment. Silver also slumped.

The U.S. Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback’s value, rose as much as 1.4 percent after Japanese Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano said his nation’s confidence in U.S. debt is “unshakable.” In a June 10 interview, Yosano also said the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency isn’t threatened. Gold typically moves inversely to the U.S. currency.

The dollar’s rise “put a little bit of pressure on gold,” Bernard Sin, the head of currency and metals trading at Swiss refiner MKS Finance SA, said by telephone from Geneva. “The dollar may rebound in the short term, but longer term, it’s going to continue to weaken.”

Gold futures for August delivery tumbled $21.30, or 2.2 percent, to $940.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division. The decline was the sharpest since April 6 and left the metal down 2.3 percent for the week, the second-consecutive weekly drop. Gold still has gained 6.4 percent this year in New York.

In London, bullion for immediate delivery dropped $14.61, or 1.5 percent, to $939.33 an ounce at 8:49 p.m. local time.

Some investors buy gold as a store of value in times of heightened international tensions and sell the metal when those tensions ease.

Iranian Presidential Vote

In Iran, voters went to polls today as President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, 52, sought a second term, touting accomplishments including advancing the country’s nuclear and aerospace technologies. Those steps have raised concerns in the West that Iran is developing atomic weapons and long-range missiles capable of reaching Israel and parts of Europe, which may have made Ahmadinejad vulnerable to a more moderate challenger.

“Pressure may also be coming from early news that a moderate candidate” may win, Tom Pawlicki, an MF Global analyst in Chicago, said by e-mail. “Such news would be bearish for gold.”

Voting was extended to 10 p.m. local time, four hours later than usual, as an “unprecedented” number sought to cast their ballots, according to Kamran Daneshjou, head of Iran’s election commission. Initial vote counts may be released early tomorrow and conclusive results may be known by later in the day.

Gold slipped to $937.25 in the afternoon “fixing” in London, used by some mining companies to sell their output, from $950 in the morning fixing. Spot prices are headed for a second straight weekly decline in London.

Resistance Seen

“It’s getting increasingly tough to hold onto its gains beyond $965-$966 levels,” Pradeep Unni, an analyst at Richcomm Global Services in Dubai, said in a note. “Repeated failures to break and hold above this zone has triggered selloffs.”

Bullion may average $825 an ounce next year, down from a previous forecast of $950, BNP Paribas said yesterday in a report. The bank raised its 2009 projection to $925, from $900.

“We believe that deflation rather than inflation is the biggest risk facing the global economy in the coming months,” Anne-Laure Tremblay, a London-based Paribas analyst, said in the report. Still, “safe-haven demand should remain strong throughout this period, as the road to recovery should be long and bumpy.”

‘Positive’ Outlook

“The outlook is still generally positive, as we must not lose sight of the forest through the trees,” MF Global’s Pawlicki said. “Commodity investment is still relatively strong and the outlook for the dollar isn’t favorable.”

Investment in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded fund backed by bullion, was unchanged for a fourth session at 1,132.15 metric tons as of yesterday, the company said on its Web site.

Dinar Untuk Perencanaan Haji : Lebih Murah, Lebih Nyaman…

Written by Muhaimin Iqbal
Saturday, 14 February 2009 06:11
Ibadah haji dari waktu ke waktu punya tantangannya sendiri, tidak mudah, berat dan mahal.

Bila pada zaman kakek nenek dahulu tantangannya adalah transport yang bisa memakan waktu berbulan-bulan dan ketidak amanan dalam perjalanannya; saat ini transport banyak dan cepat – namun Anda belum tentu bisa melaksanakan ibadah haji pada waktu yang Anda rencanakan.

Kemudahan dan kecepatan transportasi haji ini ternyata menimbulkan masalah baru, yaitu membludaknya umat muslimin dunia yang (ingin) melaksanakan haji setiap tahunnya. Dampaknya bisa diduga, yaitu keterbatasan daya tampung jamaah haji di Mekah, Arafah, Mina dan juga Madinah.

Karena keterbatasan daya tampung inilah yang menjadikan setiap Negara di jatah (Quota) jumlah orang yang bisa pergi haji setiap tahunnya. Jadi kalu toh Anda berniat pergi haji sekarang, belum tentu Anda memperoleh kesempatan pada bulan haji yang akan datang - bisa jadi kesempatan Anda baru datang 3 – 5 tahun yang akan datang.

Karena kesempatan haji Anda yang mungkin masih beberapa tahun yang Akan datang ini, maka berapa dana yang akan Anda siapkan agar pada waktu kesempatan itu datang – dana Anda benar-benar cukup ? Inilah masalahnya.

Komponen biaya haji yang utama adalah mata uang asing yaitu US$ untuk tiket pesawatnya dan Saudi Riyal untuk biaya hidup selama di sana. Karena uang kita Rupiah, maka perencanaan ibadah haji menggunakan uang Rupiah mempunyai setidaknya dua ketidak pastian – yaitu faktor inflasi dan faktor nilai tukar.

Karena dua faktor inilah maka biaya ibadah haji kita dalam Rupiah memiliki kecenderungan meningkat dari tahun ketahun. Apalagi pada tahun dimana Rupiah mengalamai penurunan nilai yang tajam terhadap US Dollar dan Riyal seperti tahun ini, kenaikan biaya haji dalam Rupiah bisa sangat significant.

Namun Anda tidak perlu kawatir sekarang; berdasarkan statistik 10 tahun terakhir, biaya haji dalam Dinar ternyata terus menerus mengalami penurunan. Bila ONH biasa tahun 2000 sekitar 70 Dinar, maka tahun ini hanya sekitar 21 Dinar saja atau mengalami penurunan rata-rata 12% per tahun.

Apabila trend ini terus berlanjut, Anda bisa pergi haji hanya dengan 10 Dinar saja pada tahun 2015 – atau ONH plus hanya dengan sekitar 20 Dinar saja.

Jadi dengan Dinar - mata uang emas yang daya belinya tidak pernah rusak oleh inflasi maupun faktor nilai tukar, perencanaan haji Anda menjadi jauh lebih aman.

Ambil contoh misalnya kalau Anda mau mulai serius merencakan haji Anda dalam rentang 5 tahun yang akan datang, maka relatif aman bila untuk ONH biasa Anda cadangkan 20 Dinar saja. Artinya kalau Anda tabung 1 Dinar per bulan saja, insyaallah nggak sampai 2 tahun dana untuk membayar ONH sudah akan cukup.

Sangat bisa jadi 20 Dinar yang Anda kumpulkan tersebut pada waktunya lebih dari cukup untuk membayar ONH biasa – bila kesempatan datang 3 – 6 tahun yang akan datang. Dalam hal ini Anda bisa meng-upgrade ONH Anda menjadi ONH plus.

Jadi bila Anda rencanakan ibadah haji Anda dengan Dinar; selain kecukupan dana lebih terjamin, juga sangat berpeluang Anda dapat meng-upgrade perjalanan haji Anda dengan yang lebih nyaman ONH plus.

Insyaallah kami daeri GeraiDinar.Com akan mulai bicara intensif dengan para penyelenggara perjalanan haji ini – khususnya ONH plus, untuk mulai menawarkan kerjasama perencanaan haji dengan berbasis Dinar.

Mudah-mudahan Allah memudahkan rencana ini.

di cedok drp GERAI DINAR

Saturday, June 13, 2009


Salam, nampaknya hari ini baru nak bernafas... Baru boleh nak post cerita baru.
Nampaknya, AFA Gold Sdn Bhd sekarang ini bertambah mantap dengan kemunculan Website baru mereka. Bukan itu sahaja, mereka juga telah membuka pejabat baru di Bandar Tasik Permaisuri, Bandar Tun Razak. Ini membuktikan perniagaan mereka telah berkembang maju dengan menampilkan beberapa program yg menarik dan menguntungkan kedua pihak tanpa ada keraguan. Terdapat program2 baru yg menampakkan ciri2 untuk membantu golongan yg meminati bidang emas ini, tanpa ada 'udang sebalik batu'...
Di dapati program mereka tidak ada 'hidden cost' yg boleh memeningkan kepala kita dgn pelbagai polisi dan alasan yg pada dasarnya dilihat tidak menguntungkan pelabur.
Tahniah sekali lagi kerana berjaya mewujudkan satu program yg telus dan menyakinkan.

Untuk mengetahui lebih lanjut boleh lihat klik pada tajuk di atas

Friday, June 12, 2009

Ilmu manfaat

Alhamdulillah, sepanajang cuti baru2 ini dapat saya memanfaatkan masa utk bertemu sahabat di Jitra. Seperti yg saya warwar kan dahulu iaitu OD CC... Perghhh... memang bagus sekali ilmu ini, dan jika 10 tahun dahulu sudah diketahui, mungkin hasilnya sudah nampak sekarang. Terima kasih Semezer.... Hanya Allah yg dapat membalas budi baik dgn meluangkan masa sehingga 1:30 pagi... Saya rasa masa hampir 4 jam tu terlalu singkat dan padat...
Apa-apapun, jika ada peluang pergilah belajar dgn otai2 yg ada dlm blog link saya seperti, Semezer dan banyak lagi...

SAX-GOLD at Mudah.Com

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