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Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Amazing chart shows October's market action is exactly like September's

Sometimes we feel like Bill Murray's character in the movie Groundhog Day, where he relives the same day over and over again. If you have been watching the market recently and also keep finding yourself getting a feeling of Deja Vu, you're not alone. The S&P 500's performance in October has nearly been an exact replica of most of September. The chart below highlights the intraday trading of the S&P 500 from September 2nd to September 30th (left axis), and compares it to the intraday trading from October 2nd through the 21st (right axis). Although it began from a higher price, the S&P 500 has followed the September blueprint nearly tick for tick!

From the low of the month, both rallies lasted thirteen trading days. In September, the S&P 500 rallied by 8.8%, and in October the rally was 7.9%. Then both rallies ended on the 14th day of the advance, when the S&P 500 hit a new high for the year only to sell off and close at its lows for the day. If (big if) October continues to follow the September script, this implies that equities would continue to trade sideways to lower for the rest of the month.

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