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Thursday, November 12, 2009

Gold Getting Nervous

GOLD HAS ADVANCED towards a new milestone, writes Bill Bonner in his Daily Reckoning, the level of $1100 an ounce.

It makes us nervous. We always feel more comfortable out in the wide, open spaces...that is to say, in trades we have all to ourselves.
But gold is still a marginal holding by marginal investors like us. Central banks – especially those in emerging countries – have very little gold. The man on the street doesn't know anything about gold. He wouldn't know a Gold Coin if it hit him on the head. As gold becomes accepted as a true store of value, we can expect more and more people to want to own it.
Governments are running breathtaking deficits...and accumulating alarming debts. Japan has a national debt of nearly 200% of its GDP. Where did that debt come from? It came from 20 years of trying to buy its way out of a slump with borrowed money. Of course, it didn't work. But now, Britain and America are following the Japanese lead...and the Japanese are still at it!
At the present rate, Japan's government debt will grow to 300% of GDP in 10 years. America's debt could grow to 100%...and then 200% of GDP...over the next decade (depending on whose projections you believe). And Britain, if we read the report in the Financial Times correctly, will have debt equal to 200% of GDP within 3 years.
Just what kind of crisis do these numbers portend? It's hard to say. Probably a combination of confidence, followed by debt default and inflation.

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