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Monday, May 4, 2009

Gold futures to test support levels

Gold futures, ended marginally higher on Friday ahead of a bank stress test next week. Safe-haven demand in gold diminished further after the US equities, in April posted its best month in nine years.
Gold was pressured after consumers felt more confident last month after the failure of Lehman Bros. Bankruptcy in some of the auto makers is seen pressuring platinum one of the important instrument in the precious metals complex. Added to all, this w as the market’s thin volumes owing to Labour Day holiday and ahead of the May Bank Day holiday in the United Kingdom on Monday.

Comex June gold futures moved against our expectations. As mentioned in the previous update, as long as $882 remains undisturbed, we favour the uptrend to resume higher. The $880 low has been tested neutralising our bullish expectations. We now tread with caution and a neutral bias.

Resistance is at $901/02 now and a daily close above $910 to revive bullish hopes again.

The big picture structures are still positive and, therefore, we continue our mild bullish bias as long as $874 holds.

Direct fall below $874 could open the downside for gold, for a test $852 or even lower. We believe that the third wave could have ended at $1,033 and the fourth wave that we have been tracking could have ended at $681 and fifth wave impulse in progress. A daily close above $1,000 is a confirmation of the same.

The RSI is in the neutral zone, indicating that it is neither overbought nor oversold. The averages in MACD are still below the zero line of the indicator again, suggesting a bearish to be intact.

Only a cross-over above the zero line of the indicator could signal bullishness again. Therefore, expect gold futures to test the support levels.

Supports are at $880, 863 & 852. Resistances are at $894, 901 & 923.

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