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Saturday, July 25, 2009

Gold to Target Record Above $970 Resistance: Technical Analysis

July 24 (Bloomberg) -- Gold may extend a recent rally and target its record high as so-called momentum indicators suggest “there’s plenty of fuel in the tank to propel a multi-week advance,” BNP Paribas SA said, citing trading patterns.

Gold’s current advance has scope to replicate the powerful April-to-June uptrend, Andrew Chaveriat, the bank’s New York- based technical strategist, wrote in a report yesterday.

Projecting a similar rise off the July 8 low of $905.10, gold may target $1,030 by early September, a target that coincides with the revisiting of the March 2008 record high of $1,032.70, Chaveriat wrote. Bullion’s eight-week stochastic indicator is “well below” the oversold zone, he said.

Gold for immediate delivery traded little changed at $947.71 an ounce at 8:37 a.m. Singapore time and is heading for a second weekly increase. The precious metal is down 8.1 percent from its peak on March 17, 2008. Bullion’s high this year was $1,006.29 an ounce, reached Feb. 20.

“In order to confirm scope for a rally toward $1,030, gold must overcome robust resistance at $957 and $970, representing the 61.8 percent and 76.4 percent retracement points of the June to July decline,” Chaveriat wrote, referring to percentages that are part of the Fibonacci sequence. Resistance levels are where sell orders may be clustered.

Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. A break of a level of support indicates a price may move to the next level. A failure indicates a trend may stall. Other key Fibonacci levels include 38.2 percent and 50 percent.

“However, given this month’s swift rise, daily momentum is overbought, and combined with the proximity of $957 and $965 resistance, this might cause a near-term pause in the rally and perhaps a pullback toward $942/$932 support,” he said.

“If such a consolidation or dip occurs, it should be followed by renewed gains breaking $957/$965/$970 resistance, opening a re-test of the $990 June high,” Chaveriat added. “Breaking $990 is possible next month, opening the $1,000 psychological barrier and February high.”

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