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Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Gold’s Rally May Stall, Standard Bank Says: Technical Analysis

By Glenys Sim

July 21 (Bloomberg) -- Gold’s recent advance may stall as the metal meets two important resistance points, Standard Bank Group Ltd. said, citing trading patterns.

The $965.25 and $995 levels represent “resistance trendlines of short-term and medium-term consolidation phases,” Darran Grabham, the bank’s technical analyst, wrote in a note yesterday. Resistance levels are where sell orders tend to be clustered.

So-called trendlines, used to determine momentum, are found by connecting an asset’s high prices over a period, and its lower prices to form a channel.

“An initial support band is situated between $937 and $932,” Grabham wrote. “Gold strength beyond $965.25 would be interpreted as positive, underpinning the market toward $983. A break above $995 would require confirmation in the form of a weekly close above $1,000.”

Gold for immediate delivery traded little changed at $948.80 an ounce at 8:45 a.m. Singapore time. The precious metal is down 8.1 percent from its record of $1,032.70 on March 17, 2008. Bullion rose 2.7 percent last week, the biggest weekly gain since the week ended May 22.

Gold has been in a “protracted consolidation phase” since reaching its peak last year, Grabham wrote. Last week’s trading represents a “bullish engulfing pattern,” indicating that the bear trend from $989.80 has stalled.

Once gold reaches a weekly close over $1,000, it is expected to recommence its long-term bull trend, with the minimum objective placed at $1,275, Grabham added. “The near- term outlook turns negative below $906, leaving gold vulnerable to the $880 to $865 support zone,” he said.

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